The core metric, the Iceberg Index, doesn’t count layoffs. It measures technical exposure: where AI systems can already perform the tasks attached to specific skills at a competitive cost. The authors are explicit that the Index “captures technical exposure, where AI can perform occupational tasks, not displacement outcomes or adoption timelines.”
In plain language: the study estimates how much human work could be shifted to AI today if organizations chose to adopt and integrate existing tools at scale.
That distinction matters. For HR, the 11.7‑per‑cent figure is not a forecast of immediate job cuts; it is a map of where the ground is already weak under employees’ feet.
The tip of the iceberg is visible. The rest is not
So far, public attention has fixated on high-profile layoffs in technology and IT roles. Yet the study suggests that visible AI adoption in computing and technology represents only “the tip of the iceberg,” amounting to about 2.2 per cent of total wage exposure, or roughly US$211‑billion.
The bulk of immediate AI capability sits in less glamorous corners of the economy: financial operations, administrative support, customer service, logistics, and professional services. Fortune’s summary of the work notes that current systems could already take over tasks tied to “roughly 11.7% of total wage value, or around $1.2 trillion in pay,” with particularly high exposure in finance, health care and professional services.
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