AI computing is now expected to generate between 34 and 123 megatonnes of carbon dioxide by 2035, according to new figures published by the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT).

That would be up to 3.4pc of the UK’s total emissions over the next decade.

The new estimates are between 87,000pc and 136,000pc higher than previous figures released last summer, when the Government said emissions from AI would be less than 0.05pc of Britain’s total.

DSIT did not say what had made it revisit the estimates but it said the figures had been updated “to reflect new analysis”.

AI data centres require huge amounts of electricity to operate, much of which is still generated by carbon-emitting fossil fuels.

The Government published a “compute roadmap” last year, laying out how the UK could boost data centre infrastructure and fulfil Labour’s AI goals.

The original report included analysis from the consultancy Cambridge Econometrics to estimate AI’s carbon emissions.

The emissions estimates are not the result of new forecasts for AI’s growth, which remain the same as last year, but they revise how carbon usage is calculated.

“Scenario projections are subject to uncertainty and may evolve as further evidence and perspectives are incorporated,” the report said.

The original analysis claimed that AI’s emissions over a decade would be equivalent to the annual emissions of 23,600 UK households.

However, under the new analysis, it would amount to 20.5 million households – a figure that was not included in the revised report.

The figures will fuel concerns about the technology’s environmental impact, raising questions about whether Sir Keir Starmer’s AI ambitions are compatible with net zero.

Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, has said that how data centres affect net zero targets is “inherently uncertain”.

Climate journal Carbon Brief had found that official estimates for the UK as a whole were smaller than estimates for individual data centres.

The wide range of the official estimates is dependent on how quickly Britain’s electricity grid decarbonises.

“If successful, the UK’s grid decarbonisation plans would help to reduce emissions from data centres towards the bottom end of this range,” DSIT said.

MPs on the environmental audit committee have said they will investigate how data centres affect the climate.

A planned data centre in Buckinghamshire, which would be one of Britain’s biggest if constructed, is expected to rely entirely on gas power because of the long wait for a grid connection.

Ofgem has said that if every planned data centre received a grid connection, Britain’s energy use could double.

AI computing is significantly more power-intensive than typical data centres and has led to a race for electricity connections.

In the US, politicians have raised concerns that households could face higher electricity bills as a result.

The Government was contacted for comment.

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