TOILET paper? Bottles of water? Cash?
No, it’s not the shopping list for next year’s Glasto, it’s some of the items every UK home is being advised to stock up on in case of a crippling cyber attack, power cut or even war.
This week the head of the National Cyber Security Centre Dr Richard Horne warned that the UK faces an attack on its critical infrastructure, which could wipe out food supplies and the electricity grid in the next two years.
He said there is a real prospect of “when food isn’t on shelves, lights aren’t on, businesses have gone under” amid an “unprecedented” rise in hacking.
A new report by the NCSC, which is part of the spy agency GCHQ, warns that Russia, China and Iran will routinely use AI, which is “highly likely” to increase the scale and efficiency of their attacks.
And in a taste of what may be to come, this week supermarkets in seven European countries reported that hackers had remotely raised the temperature in their fridges to 80C, destroying food and supplies.
Most seriously, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting says Britain and its allies have “a little over 1,000 days” to be ready to “fight and win” a war with Russia, our most likely adversary.
The Government has also launched its Be Ready campaign, advising households to prepare for three days of disruption. Streeting says people should be “alert but not alarmed”.
But put all the warnings and advice together, and it is hardly surprising that people are asking whether ministers are preparing us, or scaring us.
Anthony King, Professor of War Studies at Exeter University, believes Vladimir Putin’s faltering war on Ukraine — and Britain’s supplying of missiles to Ukraine — has made us a more likely target for Russian cyber attacks.
He warned that if tensions with Russia escalate, the first signs might be more cyber attacks on Britain’s public services and civil infrastructure, then on amenities, transport and military sites, with fake news and AI-generated propaganda to incite public unrest.
Professor King said that as well as cyber attacks, sabotage and subversion, there may be physical strikes on military sites and critical national infrastructure including undersea cables.
Ed Hill, a former Royal Marine Commando who runs security and risk management firm Intrepid Protection, says disruption to the NHS is possible, pointing to the 2017 WannaCry computer ransomware attack, which disrupted NHS services and led to thousands of cancelled appointments, and the 2024 Synnovis attack, which affected pathology services across London hospitals.
A cyber attack affecting supermarket payment systems, logistics or electricity could also close stores, he says.
Below, Ed explains what the first three days of a cyber attack could look like.
DAY ONE
07:00: “THE first signs might be mundane,” says Ed. “A phone with no signal, a payment terminal that won’t connect, or online services suddenly unavailable.
“This is what is known as an investigative phase.
“Emergency services, government and companies would be trying to work out whether the disruption was caused by a technical failure or an attack.
“Then it’s on to finding what systems are affected and whether it’s spreading.
“Uncertainty could be one of the hardest parts for the public.
“If normal news and communication channels are disrupted, people might not know whether a problem is local or wider.
“There’s also the potential for an attacker to exploit that confusion by putting out misleading information, though the form and scale of any such activity would depend on the incident.”
13:00: EFFECTS of the attack begin to spread.
Ed says: “If the original problem affected systems which other services rely on, the effects could start to be felt more widely.
“Communications are tied into transport, business and payments, so disruption in one area could make it harder for another service to operate normally – no trains, planes or banking.
“That doesn’t mean all services would fail at once. It would depend on what had been targeted, how systems were connected and what back-up arrangements were available.”
19:00: SERVICES are taken offline.
Ed says: “By this point, authorities and operators will be trying to contain the incident and restore services.
“One response could be isolating or shutting down affected systems to prevent an attack spreading.
“That could limit further damage – but could also leave some services unavailable while they were checked and brought back online.”
DAY TWO
07:00: THE disruption to everyday life continues.
Ed says: “We’re a nation of cities and countryside communities, and rural and coastal areas. The impacts will affect everyone differently.
“A power cut in 2019 showed that even a short interruption can have knock-on effects. More than a million customers lost power.
“It was restored within about 45 minutes, but more than 1,000 trains were cancelled or delayed.
“Some pumping stations didn’t switch automatically to back-up power, temporarily disrupting water supplies for around 3,000 people.”
19:00: WORRIES increase.
How to get reliable information, how to make essential payments, to travel, access food, water and healthcare, and check on relatives or neighbours who need support, all become more pressing problems.
DAY THREE
07:00: COPING while services recover.
Ed says: “After three days, there’s no single point at which a crisis would suddenly be over.
“Some services might be restored while others remain disrupted.
“This is the period the Government’s three-day advice is intended to help people to manage.
“It recommends considering basic supplies such as drinking water, food that doesn’t need cooking, a torch, a radio, a charged power bank and cash.”
DAY FOUR
07:00: RECOVERY may be uneven.
Ed says: “There could be escalation rather than de-escalation, we just don’t know.
“If infrastructure has been physically damaged, or operators needed to inspect and rebuild systems, the recovery could take longer and vary by location. What happens beyond 72 hours would depend on the cause, the extent of damage and the resilience of each service.”
ROSIE HAS A HEAD START
FOR communications officer Rosie Mullender, the Government’s alert to prepare for an emergency has simply accelerated plans she had already been considering.
She said: “I’ve always had a few emergency supplies to hand, like bottles of water and tea lights.
“But after the Government advice I got cracking and ordered a few more bits and pieces this weekend.”
Rosie spent £82.97 on a wind-up FM radio with built-in torch and phone charger, three five-litre bottles of water, candles and four tins of baked beans to add to the soup and tuna already stored away.
Her priciest buy was a £33.03 camping gas stove, but it will take three months to arrive. She said: “It’s a nice-to-have rather than an essential. I’ve seen people online use a muffin tin filled with tea lights as a makeshift hob, so we could try that, or just eat cold beans.
“One of my big worries is not being able to find out what’s going on in an emergency, so I prioritised buying a radio. Other countries have had this advice in place for years, and it makes total sense.
“As a nation, we’re so used to having everything at our fingertips, but that’s not always a given.”
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