Jim Cramer is skipping the AI infrastructure trade, saying “you don’t want to be that linked to the data center yet,” as NVIDIA fell 5% and Broadcom rose 3%.
NVIDIA pulls about 93% of its revenue from data centers and carries $279 billion in supply obligations, making it the most exposed chip stock.
Bulls see NVIDIA at about 11x fiscal 2028 earnings, but analyst revenue forecasts vary widely, showing how unsure AI spending’s path is.
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Jim Cramer is staying out of the AI infrastructure trade for now. On CNBC on November 10, 2026, he said: “I don’t want to make this trade because I still feel that you don’t want to be that linked to the data center yet.” He said it as the two biggest chip names in the expansion moved in opposite directions. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) fell 5.22% to $169.35 in Tuesday morning trading. Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) rose 3.21% to $329.72.

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How Much of Each Company Depends on Data Centers

Being “linked to the data center” means a stock’s earnings rise or fall with how much a small group of cloud providers and AI labs spend on servers. NVIDIA is about as linked as a company can be. In the quarter it reported in August, Data Center brought in $89.02 billion of $96.22 billion in total revenue, or about 93%. Its supply obligations reached $279 billion, mostly memory bought for Vera Rubin. Days sales outstanding increased to 60 days from 45. Those are large commitments to make before you know whether demand will hold.

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Broadcom has more margin, and that margin is shrinking. AI semiconductors made up 56% of total revenue in fiscal Q3, up from 49% in Q2, according to the company’s 8-K earnings release. Broadcom has six XPU customers and set up financing vehicles for two of them, Anthropic and OpenAI. Hock Tan said most AI computing demand “originates from this concentrated group who develop state-of-the-art frontier models.” He also raised a deployment risk: “Even as we ship the chips, will they be deployed on a timely basis?”

Both Stocks Have Already Fallen

NVIDIA is down 26.14% over the past month and 8.98% year to date. Part of that drop has nothing to do with data center demand. NVIDIA opened an investigation into its chief executive’s relationship with a suspected Chinese spy, and the stock fell for a second day as investors considered what it could mean (The New York Times, CNBC). Other chip stocks rallied during the same stretch (CNBC). Broadcom is down 8.8% over the month and 4.21% for 2026.

Why the Bulls Disagree

The other side of Cramer’s argument rests on valuation. NVIDIA trades at a trailing P/E of 36. Against consensus EPS of $15.9146 for the fiscal year ending January 2028, the multiple falls to about 11x. That EPS estimate has grown from $12.8148 90 days ago. Broadcom trades at roughly 17x fiscal 2027 consensus EPS of $19.4651. Management expects AI revenue of about $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and $230 billion in fiscal 2028, and says it has already secured supply for both years.

NVDA price target — NVDA Price Target — 24/7 Wall St.

AVGO price target — AVGO Price Target — 24/7 Wall St.

Jensen Huang sees the same thing: “AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue.”

Those low multiples only hold if the estimates turn out right, and the estimates vary widely. NVIDIA’s fiscal 2028 revenue estimates run from $506.48 billion to $778.47 billion. Broadcom’s fiscal 2027 estimates run from $114.72 billion to $200.12 billion. That wide spread shows how unsure analysts are about where AI spending is headed, which is Cramer’s point.

What to Watch in the Next Earnings Reports

NVIDIA: whether revenue meets its guidance of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, which assumes no China Data Center computing sales. Also watch how the $279 billion in supply commitments changes. Results will be posted on NVIDIA’s investor relations site.
Broadcom: whether fiscal Q4 revenue reaches about $34.8 billion and AI semiconductor revenue reaches $21.7 billion. Also watch the gross margin guide of about 73%, which is coming down as lower-margin XPUs make up more of sales.
Deployment timing: Tan named “land, power, and shell” as major constraints. Delays at customer data center sites would push revenue into later quarters even if orders stay the same.

NVDA earnings explorer — NVDA Earnings Explorer — 24/7 Wall St.

AVGO earnings explorer — AVGO Earnings Explorer — 24/7 Wall St.

For holders, the main question is concentration. NVIDIA gets most of its revenue from data centers. Broadcom has its VMware software business, which grew 29% last quarter, but AI chips make up a larger share of sales every quarter.

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