Will 2026 be the year that the exit market really picks up? This morning, we’ve got the view of Verdun Perry, global head of Blackstone Strategic Partners, who shared where he thinks exits volumes are headed at PEI Group’s NEXUS 2026 summit in Orlando.

Speaking of big themes, we then look at a deal that touches on two of them: take-privates and consolidation. Verdane has agreed on terms to acquire Augmentum, a UK-listed venture capital firm.

Finishing up, we’ve got commentary from Ken Barry, head of Europe private equity at global law firm White & Case, on how private equity investors are likely to react to the potential AI disruption that has rocked public markets over the last few weeks.

Exits ahead

There’s been some positive signs that the private equity exit logjam is easing a little, including figures we reported earlier in the week from Bain & Company’s Global Private Equity 2026 report showing that exit value jumped 47 percent year over year to $717 billion, marking 2025 as the second-best year for PE exit value of all time.

Bain & Co released that report in tandem with PEI Group’s NEXUS 2026 summit in Orlando this week, from where more commentary on exits has come.

The M&A market may be set for a record year, with further records to come in the years ahead, Verdun Perry, global head of Blackstone Strategic Partners, said during a keynote at the Secondaries Investor summit on February 23.

Perry said that private markets exits have been muted since 2022, with distributions that year down roughly 40-50 percent year-on-year, followed by another down year in 2023 marked by a further 40 percent decrease, SI editor Madeleine Farman reports.

In 2024, distributions were up about 30 percent. “Good news, it’s heading in the right direction. Bad news, that 30 percent up was off of a very low base,” added Perry. In 2025, distributions increased by a further 25 percent.

“There’s huge pent-up demand to both buy and to sell. The IPO markets – contrary to what many people believe – [are] open. If you have a high-quality business, the IPO market has been open for at least 18 months,” Perry said, adding he expects exit activity will increase 30 to 40 percent year-on-year in 2026.

Perry also said that secondaries market will see between $260 billion and $275 billion of volume with both GP-led and LP-led transactions on the up.

Dual theme

We’ve got a fresh deal to report that touches on a couple of the other big themes in private markets: consolidation among alternative firms and the investment opportunities to be had among liquidity-starved listed companies.

Growth equity firm Verdane has agreed on terms to acquire Augmentum, a UK-based venture capital firm that invests in early stage European fintechs. Augmentum has backed companies including Tide, Zopa, Iwoca, Cushon and Interactive Investor.

The offer price of 110p per share gives Augmentum an equity valuation of around £186 million ($251 million; €213 million). That’s a premium of 27 percent to yesterday’s closing price and just shy of 30 percent to the weighted three-month price. That’s enough to satisfy the Augmentum directors – they intend to unanimously recommend the deal.

Augmentum mentions on its website that it’s the only listed fintech-focused VC firm in the UK – something that will of course change if the deal goes ahead.

So why the change? Since its IPO in 2018, its portfolio’s potential has not been reflected in its market valuation, said chairman William Reeve in a statement.

“Over several years, we have faced a persistent and widening discount to Net Asset Value, compounded by low levels of liquidity,” he added. “This has made it difficult for shareholders to realize the true value of their holdings or for Augmentum to raise the capital necessary to support our ambitions.”

The lack of liquidity in UK public markets is something we’ve heard a lot in our coverage of take-privates.

Verdane and Augmentum now believe that the latter will be better positioned with better access to capital under the new ownership.

Moez Gharbi, partner at Verdane, added in the statement: “At Verdane, we’re optimistic about the European fintech sector and see potential in continuing to grow companies in this space.”

PE Hub understands that some of Augmentum’s businesses have outgrown the VC stage, positioning them within Verdane’s traditional growth remit.

For more on the big consolidation trend within private markets, check out this feature from PEI Group’s Private Markets 2030 series.

Don’t panic

More and more industries are getting caught up in a public market panic over the potential for AI to disrupt business models. Wealth management, legal tech, private capital and asset management have all taken a hit.

Sources I’m speaking to reckon the reaction is overblown – there will be winners and losers from AI, but at the moment the public markets seem to be playing it super safe rather than searching for nuance.

But what about valuations in private markets?

Ken Barry, head of Europe private equity at global law firm White & Case, shared this note: “In contrast, we expect this assessment within private equity to play out more gradually over the next couple of reporting cycles, with PE managers marking down assets where disruption is genuinely excepted. There are also a lot of funds that are at the point in the cycle where they need to raise capital and make distributions to their investors. That will be another moment of truth as they’re going to have to crystallize gains or losses on some of these assets.”

How private equity firms are adapting investment strategies to meet the threat and opportunity of AI is something we’ll be delving into over the coming days and weeks. Get in touch if you fancy a chat about the topic at craig.m@pei.group

That’s all from me today. Rafael Canton will bring you the US Wire later today as he reports on the ground from NEXUS 2026. Sophie Rose will be in the Europe chair tomorrow.

Cheers,

Craig

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