Martin Lewis exposes ‘complete falsity’ over how Premium Bonds prizes work

The rules for the Premium Bonds prize draw changed recently

Consumer expert Martin Lewis has clarified the rules around Premium Bonds prizes. He pointed out a common misunderstanding about how the monthly prize scheme works.

The financial expert had much to say about Premium Bonds on his recent BBC podcast. Along with explaining your real-world chances of winning a prize and who Premium Bonds are suited for, he spelled out the truth about one persistent misconception. He was asked why more recently purchased Bonds seem to win more often, despite the official rules stating that each £1 Bond has the same chance of winning a prize.

‘Exactly the same chance’

Mr Lewis said there is a simple reason why: “Many people think new Bonds win more often than old Bonds, and they’re right. And this is the reason why: there are more new Bonds than there are old Bonds.

“Each individual bond, whenever you bought it, has exactly the same chance of winning in Premium Bonds. It is a random lottery. The fact there are more new Bonds means new Bonds win more often.”

The current chances of any £1 Bond being paired with a prize are 21,000 to one, after it increased from 22,000 to one from the August draw. The prize fund rate for the scheme also went up in September, from 3.8 per cent to 4.35 per cent.

Bucking the trend

Some long-time Bond holders do win big prizes in the monthly draw. In the October 2026 draw, one person in the Overseas region won a £25,000 prize for a Bond they purchased in September 1969.

A person from Brighton and Hove won a £5,000 prize for a £1 Bond they bought even further back, in July 1960. They were especially lucky as they had just £1 in Bonds going into the October draw.

There were also several big wins for Premium Bonds purchased in the 1970s and 1980s.

‘Complete falsity’

As newer Bonds tend to win more prizes, savers may be tempted to cash in their Bonds so they can buy new ones. But Mr Lewis assured listeners this will make no difference to your chances of a win.

He said: “The idea that if you were to sell your old bonds and re-buy the same number of new Bonds, that you would now win more often is a complete falsity. Every Bond has exactly the same chance.”

He explained that while historically people would buy amounts such as £10 worth of Bonds, nowadays people will sometimes buy £10,000 or more at a time. The best way to increase your chances of taking home a prize is to buy more Bonds, as this means you have more entries in the monthly prize draw.

Mr Lewis said the same principle applies as to why some parts of the UK win more prizes. He said: “The reason why some areas are perceived as winning more than others is because there tend to be more bonds in the areas that win more than there are others. They tend to be areas where more people hold Premium Bonds.”