Back in June 2024, researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner left OpenAI’s superalignment team and predicted that Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL | GOOGL Price Prediction) stock would “explode.” Two years later, that call has aged remarkably well. The stock has done exactly what he said it would, and the underlying business matches the picture he sketched.”I care about it once you get the AI beta. Right. And so at some point Google will get $100 billion of revenue from A.I. probably their stock will explode.”
The Stock Did Explode
When Aschenbrenner recorded that episode, Alphabet was trading at $173.81. As of Friday’s close, shares sit at $359.68, a 107% gain from the day his episode aired. The one-year return alone is 105%. I have owned Alphabet since April 2012, and the last 24 months have been the most validating stretch I can remember for the AI thesis.
Aschenbrenner’s framing was straightforward: the market would care about Google’s AI work the moment it showed up in the revenue line. That moment has arrived.
Cloud Is Where the $100 Billion Thesis Lives
Google does not break out an “AI revenue” line, but Google Cloud is the closest proxy. In Q1 FY2026, reported April 29, 2026, Cloud revenue hit $20.03 billion, up 63% year over year, with backlog nearly doubling quarter on quarter to over $460 billion. That backlog number is contracted future revenue, much of it tied to AI infrastructure and Gemini workloads.
The Cloud growth curve is bending the right way: 32% in Q2 2025, 34% in Q3, 48% in Q4, 63% in Q1 2026. CEO Sundar Pichai said on the last call: “Our AI investments and full stack approach are lighting up every part of the business.” You can read the full release in the company’s Q1 2026 8-K filing with the SEC.
Gemini Is Scaling Like a Real Product
The consumer and developer side matters too. The Gemini App crossed 750 million monthly active users by Q4 2025. API usage hit 16 billion tokens per minute, up 60% from the prior quarter. Gemini Enterprise paid monthly active users grew 40% quarter over quarter. Search revenue, which many feared would get gutted by chatbots, accelerated to 19% growth as AI Overviews and AI Mode rolled out globally.
For full-year 2025, Alphabet crossed $400 billion in annual revenue for the first time, finishing at $402.84 billion.
The Bear Case
The cost of becoming the AI infrastructure layer is enormous. Capex more than doubled in Q1 2026 to $35.67 billion, up 107% year over year. Management guided 2026 full-year capex of $175 to $185 billion. Free cash flow in Q1 fell 47% year over year. Other Bets losses widened. Insider activity recently shows net selling across 160 transactions.
Prediction markets reflect the tension. Polymarket traders give a 0.34 probability that GOOGL hits $340 in June 2026 and only a 0.049 probability that Google is first to put an AI model at 1550 on Chatbot Arena this year. The crowd is not pricing in another explosion from here.
What I Am Watching Now
Aschenbrenner’s prediction has largely played out on revenue and share price. The forward question is whether the capex cycle pays back. Alphabet trades at a forward P/E of 26, with 57 buy or strong buy ratings against 7 holds and zero sells, and an analyst target of $432.83.
If you believe the Cloud backlog converts to revenue and Gemini keeps compounding API usage, the second leg of the explode call is still ahead. If capex outruns monetization, the next year tests that thesis. Either way, the researcher who walked out of an AI lab in 2024 to bet on the incumbents looks a lot smarter today than he did then.
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